Cyclone Melissa Grows Stronger While Heads Toward Jamaica

Hurricane the storm track
The hurricane has struck nearby countries

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a uncommon Category 5 cyclone as it veers in the direction of the Caribbean island, delivering deadly sudden floods and mudslides.

The cyclone, which recorded wind speeds of up to 120 miles per hour as of 6:00 AM GMT, is currently turning toward the northwest in the Caribbean region and is projected to make landfall by Tuesday, based on data from weather experts.

Advisories of power cuts and structural damage have been announced as the hurricane generates up to 76cm of rainfall and sea level surges as high as 4m above normal levels. "Find safe refuge immediately," residents have been urged.

This hurricane is the 13th storm in this year's Atlantic storm period, which typically ends in late autumn.

Most Intense Hurricane Danger

A Category 5 storm is the most powerful category, with sustained winds of at least 157 miles per hour.

Although Melissa is expected to reduce in intensity to a fourth-level storm before reaching Jamaica, meteorologists said there was "very little practical difference in the overall impacts" upon making contact with land, and that the storm will be "at least that intensity" when it hits the country.

Critical Readiness Measures

With tropical storm-strength wind and rainfall predicted to begin well before it crosses Jamaica's central region - perhaps encompassing the city of Kingston - warnings state that "preparations should be rushed to completion".

"Several days of harmful winds and torrential rain has started and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening sudden floods and numerous rock slides," advised climate experts.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said: "I know that there are many Jamaicans who are concerned, who are deeply troubled, and rightfully so: concern is justified.

"However the optimal approach to manage worry and any unease and concern is to remain prepared."

Locals are being instructed to protect their properties with sand barriers and timber panels, and to accumulate necessary supplies.

Wider Impact

Advisories are also ongoing for parts of Haiti such as the capital, Port au Prince, the neighboring country and the eastern part of Cuba, where this storm is anticipated to bring comparable impacts by the midweek period.

Landslides presently generated by the hurricane have already killed two in Haiti, according to the nation's Civil Protection agency.

Projected Course

The hurricane is predicted to pass over Cuba by the middle of the week before moving through the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic Ocean.

By the point it reaches the Caribbean nation, it is predicted to have diminished to a third-level hurricane.

Environmental Context

While it is challenging to associate individual weather events to climate change, researchers say it is making meteorological events increasingly frequent and more extreme.

Warmer oceans create additional humidity in the air, aiding in the creation of storms.

Prior to the start of the current Atlantic hurricane season, climate agencies predicted increased storm frequency, referencing heated marine conditions and likely more intense weather patterns around West Africa - where hurricanes frequently develop.

Kimberly Pollard
Kimberly Pollard

Astrophysicist and science communicator with over a decade of experience in space research and public outreach.